Team Penske
In 2022, Team Penske separated itself from the competition, winning 9 races, the championship, and having its three cars finish 1,2,4 in the standings. There’s not that much room to improve, but let’s circle a couple areas. Scott McLaughlin enters the year in a different position than last year, as the third year driver is a bona fide championship contender. Penske without a doubt has the strongest lineup in the field, but McLaughlin needs to be consistent in his performance. His 2022 campaign started strong, but a slump in the middle of the season derailed his championship hopes. Speaking of the middle of the season, Penske had serious issues at Indianapolis, for the second year in a row. Power was the only driver in the Fast 12, with Newgarden the highest finishing driver in P13. McLaughlin crashed out, leaving the Captain with P13 and P15. Indianapolis will certainly be a priority for the Penske crew, and a 500 win would cement Newgarden’s legacy as one of the greatest IndyCar drivers in recent decades. Watch McLaughlin’s consistency, and watch for Penske at the Speedway.
Chip Ganassi Racing
While Ganassi was undoubtedly a step behind Penske last year, they were still a winning team. Two wins for Scott Dixon, a 500 win for Ericsson, and a dominant win at Laguna for Palou meant four wins for Ganassi, which by their standards is an off year. Unfortunately, Ganassi was caught up in off-track drama, with the Palou contract saga taking over IndyCar media for months. Ganassi heads into 2023 with a switch in their fourth car, as Jimmie Johnson moves back over to the stock car world, replaced by Formula 2 graduate Marcus Armstrong for the road and street courses, and Takuma Sato for the oval races. Ganassi also loses Kanaan for the Indianapolis 500, as he heads to Arrow McLaren. The expectations for the three returning Ganassi drivers are clear, win races, and contend for a championship. The situation with Palou is fairly clear now, as it’s clear he will be a McLaren driver in 2024. He’ll be in a lame duck year, waiting to leave, but as shown last year at Laguna Seca, he can still perform at a high level. It’s not exactly clear what our expectations for Marcus Armstrong should be, as he comes from Formula 2 following Christian Lundgaard and Callum Ilott, but in a far better team. While he will have better equipment than those two, Armstrong’s Formula 2 record is not stellar, as he’s finished 13th three consecutive years. Ganassi made it clear during the offseason that this was a seat that required funding, so while performance is expected, Armstrong is not under immediate pressure to run top 5. Look for quiet performances, and occasional standout runs. Takuma Sato is another story entirely, as the two time Indy 500 winner will almost certainly be challenging for race wins in his limited oval starts. Expect top 5 runs at oval tracks, and a real shot at a third Indy 500 win (by the way, Sato is available at Caesar’s Sportsbook to win at +2000 as of this article, which is a steal.)
Arrow McLaren
McLaren enters this season with some big changes, bringing in 2016 Indy 500 winner Alexander Rossi, and adding Tony Kanaan to their Indy 500 lineup. After the drama last season surrounding Alex Palou, Felix Rosenqvist ended up staying for 2023, and is in another must win year. Rosenqvist is all but certain to be out at McLaren in 2024, and has expressed his desire to stay in IndyCar. While Rosenqvist is without a doubt a quick driver on his day, he needs to show that he can consistently step up and perform at a high level. Pato O’Ward had a rocky start to 2022, but rebounded to stay in title contention until Portland. The expectation for Pato remains the same, win races and contend for a title. A truly interesting move last season saw Alexander Rossi announce his move to McLaren, moving away from Andretti Autosport where his form over the last few years has been disappointing. His win at the Gallagher Grand Prix broke a 3 year winless streak, but the move to McLaren, which in the last two years has supplanted Andretti in the “Big Three,” should hold better results. Rossi will no doubt hope to return to regularly running up front, vying for top 5 finishes and podiums on a regular basis. Finally, Tony Kanaan returns for his 22nd Indianapolis 500, meaning that the McLaren lineup will include the four drivers who finished second through fifth in the 2022 running of the race. Both Kanaan and Rossi bring veteran knowledge to a team that has already shown it can find massive speed at Indianapolis.
Andretti Autosport
After a season where the team won two races, Andretti will return with a tweaked driver lineup, as Alexander Rossi was replaced in the no. 27 Honda by Kyle Kirkwood, the second year driver who dominated the junior categories on his way to the big cars. Kirkwood showed flashes of brilliance last year, interspersed with crashes and mistakes. He leaves perennial backmarkers AJ Foyt Racing for a team that has struggled in recent years to find consistent speed, but no doubt will allow him to fight much further up the field than last year. F1 veteran and third year driver Romain Grosjean returns after a disappointing 2022, where he captured 1 podium and 7 top 10 finishes, after a stunning rookie season where he captured a pole, 3 podiums, and 6 top 10 finishes on a partial schedule. The Frenchman has shown that he has tremendous speed, but has not yet shown that he can fully take over a race, and control it from start to finish like his teammate, Colton Herta. Grosjean remains an aggressive driver, someone with incredible car control who can make wildly impressive moves on track, but still hasn’t won a race since 2011 in GP2. Much of the same can also be said of Herta, who stunned the racing world with his drive at the soaked Indy GP, a month after crashing out of the lead at Long Beach. The enormous peaks and valleys have become Herta’s signature, and if he can chain together these standout performances with consistent runs, he is almost certainly a title contender. And finally, Devlin DeFrancesco returns in the no. 29, after a rookie season where he made several errors and a few enemies. DeFrancesco hasn’t shown the speed to compete up front, but the sophomore driver should be able to improve in his second year, and grab a few top 10 finishes and consistently battle for top 15 finishes.
Rahal Letterman Lannigan
A tough year for RLL saw no wins, and only one podium, scored by rookie standout Christian Lundgaard. While Lundgaard came alive in the second half of the season, impressing fans and those in the paddock, the same cannot be said for Jack Harvey. Harvey had a horrible slump, looking nothing like the driver we saw at Meyer Shank Racing in 2021. Harvey scored one top 10, a P10 at a Nashville race of attrition, and finished 22nd in points. Harvey will move to the no. 30 car this year, as RLL aims to keep the no. 45 and HyVee in the top 10 with Christian Lundgaard, but the pressure is very much on for Jack Harvey. Another disastrous year will almost certainly result in him losing his seat, especially with talented youngsters like Linus Lundqvist waiting in the wings. RLL is still looking to move into a more competitive tier, and to get out of the strange position it sits in as neither a top team or a backmarker.
Dale Coyne Racing
The little team that could, Dale Coyne enters 2023 after a 2022 season that saw David Malukas take a podium at Gateway after an astonishing last run. Malukas steadily improved last year, putting in some great qualifying performances and scoring 3 top 10 finishes. Malukas ended the season consistently finishing in the top 15, and will no doubt be looking to pick where he left off. Malukas is one of the brightest young stars in IndyCar, a bonafide homegrown talent who has the whole world in front of him, and I’m tremendously excited to see what he can do. Malukas is joined for 2023 by Sting Ray Robb, who captures the best name in racing title from perennial winner Will Power. Robb showed flashes of speed in his junior career, winning the 2020 Indy Pro 2000 championship, but lagging behind a bit in his transition to Indy NXT . This season looks to be a learning experience for Robb, as he adjusts to the competition and the cars.
AJ Foyt Racing
If Coyne is the little team that could, then Foyt has been the little team that couldn’t. A funding issue brought a halt to Tatiana Calderon’s season, and called Kirkwood’s into question. Kellet languished in the back, and Kirkwood couldn’t keep the car pointed straight. This season, Foyt enters with a fairly stellar driver lineup, as Santino Ferrucci and rookie Benjamin Pedersen make up the two car effort. There’s no real reason to expect a marked jump in performance, but Ferrucci has shown an ability to get the most out of a car and it wouldn’t entirely be surprising to see him grab a few top 10 finishes and make the Fast 12 at some tracks. Pedersen falls into the same category as Robb, a rookie who has some promise, but is far from the level that Kirkwood and Malukas came in at. This is a learning season for Pedersen, and he’ll be up against a teammate who will not be an easy fight.
Juncos Hollinger Racing
Juncos has been abroad this offseason, not just showing off to Argentinian crowds, but getting a second driver. Augustin Canapino, an Argentinian touring car driver with several titles over various national series, was announced as Juncos’ second driver alongside Callum Ilott. While international representation is amazing, there is another angle to this choice. Part of the advantage to having a second car is the ability to generate twice the feedback, and having not only an IndyCar rookie, but a driver who has spent his entire career in heavy touring cars negates that. Expectations aren’t particularly high for Canapino, which is understandable, and I would warn against the McLaughlin comparisons, as Supercars has a far deeper field. Ilott is tougher to judge, as he was quietly excellent last year, but so much of what held him back was Juncos being a small one car team. Can Ilott achieve higher finishes this year? Maybe, but more consistent top 15 finishes and Fast 12 appearances should be in order for the Brit.
Ed Carpenter Racing
Another team that has the ability to run up front, but rarely does, ECR had one podium last year, which was Veekay at Barber. Daly returns for another year, after underwhelming in his first full season. Veekay was similarly underwhelming, and Ed Carpenter seems to have succumbed to the grasp of old age. ECR was typically fast at Indy, but again failed to have a good finish, as Daly managed to eke a P6 but no one else ended up in the Top 15. In some ways, ECR feels similar to RLL, where we all feel they should be running higher than they usually do. Veekay has a clear advantage over Daly on the road/street courses, but Daly has made a few Fast 12 appearances, and should be expected to regularly run in the Top 15.
Meyer Shank Racing
Penske 2: Electric Boogaloo enters its second year, as a banner year in 2021 gave way to a slightly disappointing 2022, with Pagenaud finishing in 15th and Castroneves in 18th. Pagenaud picked up a podium during the Indy GP monsoon, and ran well at the street courses and big ovals. Castroneves had a year to forget, with only three top 10 finishes, and a disastrous weekend at Iowa. It’s difficult to peg exactly where Meyer Shank should be, since they receive technical support from Andretti Autosport who haven’t exactly been the paragons of consistency, and their previous driver in Jack Harvey had the worst season of his career last year. MSR has shown speed, and it’s tough to imagine a better team at the Speedway than Pagenaud and Castroneves, so external expectations rest around performing well at Indy, and running top 10 at street and road courses. Internal expectations are probably focused on winning the 500 more, as Mike Shank has a feel for winning crown jewel events.
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