IndyCar at Laguna Seca: The Title Paths

Will Power heads into the season finale at Laguna Seca 20 points ahead of both Dixon and Newgarden, 39 of Ericsson and 41 ahead of Penske teammate McLaughlin. With this in mind, let’s take a look at what it would take for each of the 5 to win the championship in Monterey this weekend. You can take a look at the IndyCar points structure here on the IndyCar website and down below. One small note, in the event of a tie, the winner would be decided by most wins, then most second place finishes, then most third place finishes… you get the idea. So in this scenario, Newgarden (5) holds the most wins, then McLaughlin(3), and Dixon(2). Ericsson and Power each have 1 win, but Power has 3 second place finishes compared to Ericsson’s 0. So the order goes, Newgarden, McLaughlin, Dixon, Power, Ericsson. 

WILL POWER

Power has a 20 point lead, which means he retains some control over his title hopes. With IndyCar’s current points system, he only needs to finish ahead of his rivals to maintain, and can finish two spots behind them. The winner will earn 50 points, plus the one bonus point for leading the final lap. Assuming either Dixon or Newgarden wins and scores 51 points, Power only needs to finish 4th to win. However, if one of the two scores a bonus point, from either leading the most laps or winning the pole, then Power must finish 3rd. Things become substantially easier for Power with neither of the two winning, as they would earn 10 less points for finishing second. Second with the full allotment of bonus points awards 44 points, meaning that Power could finish 7th or higher, in order to score at least 21 points more. Without any bonus points, Power would only have to finish 9th, or 10th with a bonus point. At a point these endless scenarios become confusing, but the bottom line is that Power must finish no less than 19 points behind both Newgarden and Dixon. 

NEWGARDEN AND DIXON

Both two-time champion Josef Newgarden and six-time champion Scott Dixon sit 20 points behind Power, and need help from Power to win. They must score 20 points more than Power, as they both hold the tiebreaker over him. All of the scenarios listed above for Power apply here, and can just be flipped to apply to them. They must win if Power finishes 4th or lower, finish 2nd if he’s 10th or lower, 3rd if he’s 15th or lower, and then it continues on. The bonus points are not as important as a tie would benefit either driver, but if Power leads a lap, that single bonus point would give him an advantage of a whole place in some scenarios. With Power the IndyCar pole master, it is hugely important for Newgarden and Dixon that he doesn’t start on pole and lead laps. Refer to the site linked in the opening paragraph for the exact points structure. 

ERICSSON

The Indy 500 champ has not performed at the high level of his teammates Palou and Dixon, or his rivals at the Penske camp. But, he has continued to quietly finish in the top 10 and top 5, which has kept him in the title hunt as we approach the last race. Ericsson sits 39 points behind Power, and 19 behind both Newgarden and Dixon. So not only does Ericsson need to beat Power by at least 40 points, since he’ll lose a tiebreaker, he also needs to beat Newgarden and Dixon by 20 points, since again he’ll lose a tie breaker. Since Power at minimum will score five points for finishing 25th, that leaves Ericsson with one option, win. Ericsson has to win the race to even have a shot, and with the full array of bonus points, he would need Power to finish no higher than 16th, while having Newgarden and Dixon both finish 4th or worse. It’s highly unlikely that all of these happen, and perhaps even more unlikely that we see Marcus Ericsson win in dominating fashion like we have seen Colton Herta do here. 

MCLAUGHLIN

Scott McLaughlin was as low as 10th after Detroit, but has rebounded all the way up in what has been an incredible end to the season. And if you thought Marcus needed help, take a look at McLaughlin. 41 points back, he needs to win, and with no bonus points have Power finish 20th or worse, while also having Newgarden and Dixon out of the top 5. Technically, due to the tiebreaker he holds over Dixon, with a 51 point gain he could have Dixon finish 5th and then win on a tiebreaker. However, out of the drivers in the title fight, McLaughlin may strangely be the one I have the most confidence in to earn all 54 available points. He did it last week at Portland, the first race at St. Petersburg, and earned 53 in his win at Mid-Ohio. McLaughlin has been absolutely amazing at controlling races from the front, and Laguna Seca is the perfect track to do that at.