IndyCar at Laguna Seca: Betting Preview

The NTT IndyCar Series heads to beautiful Monterey, for the season finale at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca. The tightest title battle in 20 years has separated slightly, but we still have five drivers, the Penske trio and Ganassi duo of Ericsson and Dixon, within 41 points of the title. Dixon and Newgarden sit 20 points back of Power, with Ericsson and McLaughlin 39 and 41 back respectively. The championship scenarios are muddled, but Will Power controls his destiny, needing to finish at least two spots behind his closest rivals in the case of a win.  

HERTA’S HOUSE

Colton Herta has won the last two races here at Laguna Seca, the only two races he’s competed in here with IndyCar. While Andretti has had a very disappointing season, Herta has shown speed at every road course. He was challenging for a podium at Mid-Ohio before a pit strategy error, took a wet weather win at IMS, and finished top 5 at Road America. He was in a similar situation last year, and walked off with the win, pole, and most laps led at this race. The books have noted this, opening Herta at +800 and lowering him to +700 within minutes. That’s still great value, and I would play this down to +500. I’m betting his whole card, through top 3 at +175 and Top 5 at -120. Herta and his father have been lights out here, and in a series where the driver makes the biggest difference, Herta absolutely excels here. Take Herta for a top 5 at 1-1.5U and sprinkle some on T3 and a win. 

ANDRETTI CAN SHINE

We just talked about Colton Herta, but let’s take a look at his Andretti teammates, Alexander Rossi and Romain Grosjean. Rossi had the worst season of his career last year, and still started in 2nd before contact with his teammate knocked him a lap down. Rossi won the other IMS race in the dry, and is very good here. With the 27 team and Rossi seemingly solving their issues stemming from the introduction of the aeroscreen, I would hold off for now unless a favorable Head-to-Head matchup comes up, but keep a close eye on his practice times, Rossi could be quick here in his last Andretti race. The other Andretti driver, Romain Grosjean, has had a chaotic season with bad luck, his own mistakes, and a steep learning curve in his second IndyCar season. But, we know Grosjean loves the road courses, and he said this one in particular is one of his favorites. He ran solidly in the top 10 here last year, while running an alternate strategy that put him on sticker reds for a memorable run to a podium last year. Andretti was fast here last year, and Grosjean has shown speed at the natural road courses this year, even if he and the 28 team have shot themselves in the foot at every turn. Grosjean’s Top 5 odds sit at a very appealing +350 over on Caesar’s. I’m hesitant to put more than .5U on Grosjean, but his potential at this track shouldn’t be ignored. Watch for Caesar’s to post H2H matchups, as both Rossi and Grosjean will be undervalued by the books. 

SCOTTY MAC AND THE THIRSTY 3’S

The man from down under has been phenomenal this year, picking up a third win from pole at Portland International Raceway last weekend. While his championship hopes require some serious help, McLaughlin has been lights out since the Indy 500 at road courses. Shortly after the 500, McLaughlin talked to the media about focusing on taking the available points, and focusing on good finishes, rather than winning at all costs. The race after that he scored a Top 10 at Road America. Then he won Mid-Ohio, grabbed a P4 at IMS, and won Portland. Talk about good finishes, huh? His first trip here last year, McLaughlin ran Top 10 most of the race, before a disappointing P12. During the weekend, he made the Fast 12, and led his first IndyCar session, with the fastest time in Practice 2. He sits at +400 for the win and +100 for a podium finish on Caesar’s, good value for a driver who has been lights out on road courses the second half of the season. Take the thirsty 3’s for a podium at +100, and bet this as low as -120. If you have the bankroll to stomach it, take a look at the win, with anywhere from .5U to 1U. 

BEST BETS:

McLaughlin T3 +100

Herta T5 +175

Head 2 Head: 

Grosjean: Look for bets against non-big 3 teams, or anything with odds over +130.

Rossi: Same advice here as for Grosjean, avoid the big three unless there is serious action.

Veekay: Fade Veekay against the top 4 teams and possibly Rahal and Lundgaard(not Harvey). He was utterly abysmal here last year, getting passed on track for position by drivers who were backmarkers.

Longshots:

Scott McLaughlin to Win +400

Colton Herta to Win +700

Romain Grosjean to place T5 +350