IndyCar at Portland: Betting Preview

The NTT IndyCar Series heads to the Pacific Northwest Sunday, to the Portland International Raceway for the Grand Prix of Portland. Last year saw Alex Palou win to enforce his championship, and hold his lead on the way to his 2021 title. This year, Will Power rolls into Portland in the same position, with a slim lead in the championship that he needs to protect. Power recorded the fastest time in the private test two weeks ago, and won this race in 2019, so he comes in with a heap of confidence. 

Power

Will Power currently sits at a juicy +100 for a top 5 this weekend, over on Caesar’s. He’s at +800 to win now, after opening at +900, and even sits at +200 for a podium. In the five races at a natural terrain road course, meaning not a street course, Will Power has finished 4th at Barber after being screwed on strategy, 3rd at the Indy RC, crashed out at Road America, 3rd after spinning at Mid-Ohio, and then 3rd at the Indy RC again. So that’s 60% on podiums, a 4th at a track you can’t pass at, and then crashed out by a rookie. +200 implies a 33% probability and that is clearly off the mark. Aside from his road course results, this year Power has displayed an uncanny ability to finish in the top 5. Power has 7 podiums on the year on all track types, along with 3 more 4th place finishes, and a 6th place at Gateway. Power has proven all year that he is able to close out races in the top 5, and I’m (literally) betting on that. 

Palou

Palou won this race last year, and has been lights out on natural road courses, and has absolutely maximized every race he has run this year. Everything I just said about Will Power and how he is able to get the maximum finish from his car? Well that’s Alex Palou, albeit with a slightly worse car. Palou picked his way through chaos last year, and at +125 for a top 5, and +250 for a podium, Palou is great value at a track that frequently produces chaos. I’ll also point out that Caesar’s has various props here, including Top Honda at +450, and about a million different quinella/exacta combinations, far more than any other book. 

Rosenqvist

This one is a long shot, and I wouldn’t put more than .5U on it, but Rosenqvist has quietly been good here, with a podium in 2019, and P6 in 2021 after IndyCar skipped it for the pandemic. McLaren has had great speed at the road courses so far, but have had possibly the worst combined luck, specifically at road courses. They had two mechanical failures at Mid-Ohio, Pato blew up at Road America, and then spun at the first Indy RC, directly into his teammate. Last year here, Rosenqvist qualified third, but was caught out in the beginning of the race, and still worked his way up to 6th. I like +250, especially as a long shot. 

Best Bets 

Power Top 5 (+100)

Palou Top 5 (+125)

O’Ward Top 5 (-175)

Longshots

Lundgaard Top 5 (+500)

Rosenqvist Top 5 (+250)

Power to Win (+900) DraftKings