Motorsports betting guide for the Roval; Turkish Grand Prix

The NASCAR Cup Series and the Xfinity Series travel back home to Charlotte this weekend, for the last race in the playoff round of 12 for both. While road course favorites are heavily hedged by Vegas, value can always be found in the margins and the longshots, so let’s find it. 

For Saturday’s Xfinity race, the favorites are AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric. No need to check the odds for those, since Cindric and Allmendinger have been two of the most dominant road course drivers in recent memory, so Cindric sits at +220 and Dinger at +230. With six road course races on the schedule so far, Allmendinger and Cindric have each won one each, Mid-Ohio and the Indianapolis Road Course. That leaves four races though, and all four of the races; Daytona Road, COTA, Road America, and Watkins Glen, were won by the no. 54 car. Two were with Kyle Busch behind the wheel, and two were with Ty Gibbs. GIbbs is slightly behind Cindric and Allmendinger, at +450, representing a slightly better shot for a favorite to win. Gibbs has competed at all the road courses except COTA (he drove the 81 at Road America), and has been a contender at all of them. Gibbs recorded wins at both Daytona and the Glen and a third at Mid-Ohio, showing his stellar performance. The only time Gibbs finished out of contention was Road America (sat on pole) and Indianapolis RC, both due to car issues out of his control. The three favorites are the easy bets for Saturday, but a value pick lies with a different Kaulig Racing driver. Justin Haley has been a quietly competitive driver on road courses, recording 6 top 10’s, 2 top 5’s, and 3 stage wins. Haley has had terrible luck at the Roval, but only 17 points above the cutline means he needs a good race. At +1600 for a win and +160 for a top 5, Haley is a good bet for value. The usual cast of road course ringers will be present, headlined by Will Rodgers and Sage Karam. Karam, a former IndyCar driver, impressed in his drives at both the Indy RC and Bristol, and should be a contender for a top 10, as is Rodgers, a sportcars ace. 

Sunday’s Cup race is the final event in the Round of 12, and should see its fair share of desperate drivers. Harvick, Bell, Byron, and Bowman sit below the cutline, with Busch, Elliott, and Blaney not too far ahead. The favorites for this race are headlined by Chase Elliott, who has won the last two races at this configuration, and has 7 road course wins. Elliott is +220 to win, and with no practice for this event, his previous success matters even more for the team. Kyle Larson, who has two wins on road courses this season and like Elliott had lots of speed at Daytona, is +450 to win. Those two are the favorites to win, and the easiest picks to make, but a couple of drivers may have better value. Christopher Bell is 28 points below the cutline, and needs a win to ensure he advances to the Round of 8. Bell won the Daytona RC earlier in the year, and was running up front at the Glen until contact sent him back. Bell is in a pressure situation, and at +1500 to win/+210 for a top five, he is a brilliant value pick. AJ Allmendinger, who has two Cup wins at road course races, including at the Indy RC, is another pick at slightly longer odds. Allmendinger and team owner Matt Kaulig have stated that their goal this year in Cup is “trophy hunting” and expect the same this weekend. Allmendinger has won both of the previous Xfinity events here, and will be competitive. At +1800 for a win/-145 for a top 10, Allmendinger is not to be ignored. The Allmendinger sweep is a real possibility, and betting an Xfinity win and a Cup top 5 gives out a +1088 parlay. To win both? +6170. Look also at William Byron, who has two top 10’s in the previous Roval races and needs a strong race to get into the next round of the playoffs. Byron is +1300/-165 for a top 10. 

In case you miss open-wheel racing since IndyCar has finished, F1 travels to Turkey for the Turkish Grand Prix. The 2020 race was a wet, slippery affair that won’t tell us anything about Sunday’s race. Lewis Hamilton has taken a ten place grid penalty after replacing engine parts, and Carlos Sainz replaced his entire engine, moving him to the very back of the grid. Verstappen is the favorite, at -165 for a win. Hamilton is +300, but has put in spectacular drives this year and should not be discounted, especially since he led both Friday practice sessions. Look for Hamilton to finish on the podium.